Achieving fossil-free heavy transport by 2050
22 MAY 2018
How do we reach zero CO2emissions by 2050, the Paris Agreement target? Scania’s comprehensive research has determined the technology and infrastructure development as well as other action needed to reach that goal.
In a “back-cast” modelling approach from 2050, Scania initially built a detailed model integrating “well-to-wheel” carbon emissions with logistics system, powertrain efficiency, technology cost and penetration, and transport demand.
The research shows that we can achieve more than a one-fifth reduction of CO2 emissions by optimising system and non-powertrain improvements, such as improving routing and load management. The remainder can be reached with alternative drivetrains and fuels.
TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP
Incorporating drivetrain, fuel, and infrastructure costs – were incorporated to create a consistent euro-per-kilometre model across technologies.
THE WELL-TO-WHEEL CARBON EMISSIONS
Spanning production to end-use of fuel and electricity – were calculated based on the emission of each fuel and technology.
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Electrification is most efficient, quickest and cost-effective
22 May 2018 The total cost of ownership of battery electric vehicles (BEV) will be the same as for all types of heavy combustion engine diesel vehicles already by 2031. Distribution trucks have already reached cost-parity in Sweden and BEV buses in Germany. -
Biofuels are the best near-term choice
22 May 2018 Biofuels used in internal combustion engines are the best near-term choice to begin reducing CO2 emissions. However, in the long run battery electric vehicles will constitute the majority. Based on maximum possible use of globally available biofuel supply, biofuels-based combustion engines can power one-fifth of vehicles in 2050.
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Late start for fuel cell electric vehicles
22 May 2018 Because fuel cell vehicles will be more expensive, substantial growth is expected to be later than for battery electric vehicles. By 2050, they could constitute 60 percent of the total heavy vehicle fleet with the remainder battery electric vehicles. -
Late start for fuel cell electric vehicles
22 May 2018 Because fuel cell vehicles will be more expensive, substantial growth is expected to be later than for battery electric vehicles. By 2050, they could constitute 60 percent of the total heavy vehicle fleet with the remainder battery electric vehicles.
