The Pathways Study
Achieving fossil-free commercial transport by 2050
Achieving a fossil-free commercial transport system in the timeframe of the Paris Agreement target is not only possible, but also financially attractive from a societal perspective. This is the key conclusion of The Pathways Study initiated by Scania.
CO2 emissions can be reduced by over 20 percent simply by optimising transport systems, for example through improved routing and better load management. Moreover, there are several fuel- and powertrain pathways to a fossil-free future. Biofuels offer the highest CO2 emissions reduction pathway and electrification is the most cost-effective. Other technologies, such as hydrogen fuel cells and e-highways, have important use cases to consider and may be critical for select geographies and applications.
To reach this goal, the industry must begin to change rapidly and immediately. New technologies can take a long time to achieve wide adoption, as the existing stock of vehicles turns over slowly. This means that for 2050 to be fossil-free, changes at scale are required already by 2025, including not just new technologies but also new infrastructure, behaviours, and partnerships.
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Biofuels are the best near-term choice
22 May 2018 Biofuels used in internal combustion engines are the best near-term choice to begin reducing CO2 emissions. However, in the long run battery electric vehicles will constitute the majority. Based on maximum possible use of globally available biofuel supply, biofuels-based combustion engines can power one-fifth of vehicles in 2050.
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Late start for fuel cell electric vehicles
22 May 2018 Because fuel cell vehicles will be more expensive, substantial growth is expected to be later than for battery electric vehicles. By 2050, they could constitute 60 percent of the total heavy vehicle fleet with the remainder battery electric vehicles. -
Late start for fuel cell electric vehicles
22 May 2018 Because fuel cell vehicles will be more expensive, substantial growth is expected to be later than for battery electric vehicles. By 2050, they could constitute 60 percent of the total heavy vehicle fleet with the remainder battery electric vehicles.
