Autonomous trucks can help address transport industry’s driver shortage issue

However, what will autonomous transport mean for truck drivers? In common with worries over AI’s potential impact on other sectors, some wonder if autonomous vehicles will be the cue for mass redundancies.

Far from it. The different rates of technological change and varying regulations mean the shift to autonomous won’t happen overnight in every segment, but even more importantly, the industry already has a chronic shortage of drivers.

Our mining customers tell us that it is becoming harder and harder to get enough drivers due to the demands of the job; the haulage industry says that the long hours away from family are a big factor in the declining driver numbers. The fiercer the competition to attract and retain drivers, the greater the cost. In several parts of the world, including Europe, this has at times caused delays in shipments and made transportation more expensive.

It's not just anecdotal. The International Road Transport Union (IRU) found in 2024 that there are 3.6 million unfulfilled driving positions in the 36 countries that contribute 70 percent of our global GDP. And when you look at the age profile this downward trend in driver numbers is set to continue. The IRU reports that some 31.6 percent of truck drivers are aged 55 or over, while just 6.5 percent of the workforce are aged 25 or under.

With 3.4 million drivers projected to retire in those 26 countries by 2030, we are staring a global resource crisis in the face in a sector which Scania and other industry actors describe as the “bloodstream” of society, for its role in keeping goods moving, and mines and other production sites working. We’ve already seen what happened during the Covid-19 pandemic, when severely disrupted supply chains delayed deliveries and in some cases brought them to a standstill.

It’s clear then that autonomous trucks have a vital role to play in countering the growing driver shortage.

In mines, the driverless vehicles can be programmed to run repeatedly, increasing productivity without exposing human drivers to potential risks. On highways, autonomous trucks can maintain a constant flow of freight at times of the day when there is less traffic, creating less emissions as a result.

It’s also important to point out the complementary nature of the autonomous solution. Jobs will evolve, as they have always done, but there will still very much be a place for humans; be it the control tower operators issuing the commands to the driverless trucks, support roles, or the drivers who will be needed for first and last-mile pick-ups and drop-offs, or the handling of hazardous cargoes.

We have a solution that can help us to deal with the issues caused by the chronic driver shortage. This and the other safety and environmental benefits make it imperative for Scania, as a major transport industry manufacturer, to continue investing in and researching autonomous transport, for all our futures.